Which pop star will have a bigger debut album in 2020?
Justin Bieber strategically wowed fans on Twitter with an enigmatic series of dates and photos hinting at new music to come. “December 24, December 31 January 3 … # 2020” the singer tweeted today by attaching a photo of himself and a text message that simply says “tomorrow”. It could reasonably be deduced that Bieber is planning to release new music soon and that a new studio album could be imminent. This would mark his first full effort since 2015 Goal, and given its massive singles streak in between, the album is sure to sell like gangbusters.
Bieber isn’t the only pop star making a comeback in the New Year. Last week his ex-girlfriend Selena Gomez announced the title of her upcoming album, Rare, slated for release on January 10. In the same way, Rare will mark Gomez’s first full-length album since topping the charts in 2015 The comeback, although it is already one step ahead of its predecessor: RareThe first single from “Lose You to Love Me” became Gomez’s No.1 debut single on the Billboard Hot 100. The austere confessional ballad seems to address the fallout from Gomez and Bieber’s breakup (“You promised the world and I fell for it / I put you first and you loved it “), and the singer has describe Rare like “stepping into a whole new era of my life, and it doesn’t involve the horrible things, the abuse, the emotional chaos.”
Naturally, the promise of new music from the two stars has divided fans into vocal camps, especially on Twitter, where #BieberIsBackDOMAIN and #RAREisComing are fighting for fashionable supremacy. But how will Gomez and Bieber’s new albums fare where it matters? Billboard charts – and which star will have the biggest debut in 2020?
Sales forecast for the first week of Justin Bieber’s new album
Justin Bieber is so ubiquitous on the Billboard graphics that it’s almost easy to forget how overwhelmingly popular it is. In 2015, Goal debuted at No. 1 with an impressive 649,000 album equivalents, of which 522,000 were traditional album sales. The album has since been certified 4x platinum by the RIAA and spawned three # 1 singles: “Sorry”, “Love Yourself” and “What Do You Mean? “, As well as n ° 8” Where Are Ü Now “. These singles achieved a total of 25 RIAA Platinum certifications, and each of the top three charts has received over a billion streams on Spotify.
Bieber has been busy since the release of Goal by releasing his own singles and being a guest on the songs of other stars. Most notably, he appeared on the remix of Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s diamond certified single “Despacito”, which topped all streaming services and all airwaves in 2017. Bieber also appeared on “I’m the One” by DJ Khaled alongside Quavo, Chance the Rapper and Lil Wayne, propelling the song to No.1 on the Hot 100. A second collaboration with DJ Khaled, “No Brainer”, reached No.5, while his last partnership with Ed Sheeran “I Don’t Care” peaked at # 5. 2. Most recently, Bieber dipped his feet in the waters of the country on Dan + Shay’s “10,000 Hours”, which peaked at No. 4 and became the highest ranked non-festive country song to BillboardThe table of streaming songs from.
Obviously, Bieber kept his commercial momentum going, leaving fans eager to release a full new album. Bieber is about as popular and arguably more suited to radio than his fellow musical Harry Styles, whose Fine line just debuted with 478,000 album-equivalent units, including 393,000 album sales. Using this comparison and GoalIn total for the first week of, I would say that Bieber’s new album would sell between 400,000 and 500,000 “pure” copies in its first week. Streaming also plays a much bigger role in album sales now than in 2015, and 120,000 streaming-equivalent albums look puny for a new version of Bieber. Assuming the singer kicks off their rollout with another explosive lead single, I’m predicting a streaming debut more in line with Post Malone’s. Hollywood bleeding, which had 278,000 equivalent streaming albums in its first week.
Final prediction: 700,000 units equivalent to an album
that of Selena Gomez Rare first week sales forecast
Selena Gomez has not historically been an artist who sold a lot of albums. His solo debut, The dance of the stars, debuted with 97,000 copies in 2013, while its follow-up, The comeback, moved 117,000 units in its first week, of which 85,000 were pure sales. Corn The comebackThe singles performed respectably, with “Good for You,” Same Old Love, ”and“ Hands to Myself ”all peaking in the Hot 100 Top 10. 2017’s“ Bad Liar ”underperformed commercially , peaking at No. 20, but it was critically acclaimed and established Gomez as an intuitive singer whose singles surpassed the generic radio fluff. The anthemic singles “Wolves” and “Back to You” saw her rubbing shoulders with electro-pop and EDM, demonstrating his talent for explosive hooks and arena-sized choruses. Meanwhile, the Kygo “It Ain’t Me” and DJ Snake banger collaboration “Taki Taki” have both racked up over 900 million Spotify streams, proving that Gomez is a major force on streaming services if she has the right song or the right collaborators.
Still, it took a stripped-down instrumental and plaintive vocal performance to catapult Gomez to the top of the Hot 100. Like Vulture’s Craig jenkins noted, Gomez sold “Lose You to Love Me” primarily on its lyrics. It was a bet that paid off, as fans are clearly eager to hear Gomez’s take on his relationship with Bieber. Introspective and empowering pop songs flourished in 2019, one of the most notable examples being Ariana Grande’s “Thank U, Next”, in which she literally names her ex-boyfriends and celebrates her renewed commitment to love. -own. Gomez took a similar approach on “Lose You to Love Me,” and it took her straight to the top of the charts.
Thanks, Next also makes a good analog for predicting Raredebut in the charts. Carried by consecutive No. 1 singles “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings”, Grande’s latest album debuted with 360,000 album-equivalent units, of which 116,000 were outright sales. The album was a critical success and appeared on several end-of-year charts, and it set Grande on a solid footing in terms of songwriting and musical direction. If Gomez does the same on Rare– which seems likely, given the critical acclaim, commercial success, and artistic clarity of ‘Lose You to Love Me’ – the album could have a much bigger debut than The comeback. A similar pure sales total (85,000-100,000) seems likely, but given Gomez’s aforementioned streaming success (as well as “Lose You to Love Me,” which has already earned 245 million Spotify plays), Rare is virtually guaranteed to perform better than its streaming predecessors. Given its current graphic momentum and popularity on social media, Rare could very well earn 150,000 equivalent streaming albums in its first week.
Final prediction: 250,000 units equivalent to an album
Yes, I predict Bieber’s new album will almost triple Gomez’s debut Rare, but that’s not a blow to Gomez or a judgment on his current popularity. The point is, Bieber has historically sold a lot more albums than she does and has had five incredible No.1 hits since its release. Goal. Look beyond the raw numbers of these predictions, and I predict that Gomez Rare more than double the sales of the first week of The comeback, while I expect Bieber’s new album to perform slightly better than Goal. (At some level of success, exponential growth in sales with each successive album becomes nearly impossible.) Of course, those predictions are all fun, and Bieber and Gomez deserve their albums to be judged on their own merits, rather than against. each other because of their romantic history. They both have a good chance of going over the Billboard 200 as long as they don’t release albums on the same day, and in that case, they’ll both be the winners.
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