By Afifeh Abedi, expert in international affairs

Russia’s likely decision to liquidate the “Jewish Agency” and cease its activities has drawn strong reactions from the authorities in Tel Aviv and has cast further doubt on the prospect of a reduction in tensions between Russia and Israel. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the anti-Russian positions of the Israeli authorities, a “verbal conflict” between Moscow and Tel Aviv erupted, which today turns into a “diplomatic conflict”. Given the international situation after the war in Ukraine, even this scenario has gained momentum and the friendship between Russians and Israelis will turn into hostility and a new alignment.

But it should be noted that relations between Russia and Israel are complicated. Over the past three decades, bilateral, regional and international considerations have created a strategic interdependence between Moscow and Tel Aviv that is difficult and costly for both sides, especially Israel, to change and replace. We can briefly cite the following cases:

International considerations

The scenario envisaged for changing friendly relations between Russia and Israel in the future has already been experienced. Prior to the formulation of Gorbachev’s “New Thought” doctrine in the foreign policy of the Soviet Union and during the Cold War, Moscow and Tel Aviv were in different blocs and the Soviet Union, in addition to suppressing the Jews at home, provided significant covert support to the Palestine Liberation Organization and trained and equipped the Syrian, Egyptian and Iraqi armies in the war with Israel, and Israel was also in service of Western bloc goals to reduce the field of unity of the Soviet Union in the neighboring borders.

But in the last years of the Soviet Union’s existence, Gorbachev revised his Middle East policy toward Israel, believing that establishing cordial relations with Israel could help improve relations with the United States. This policy also continued after the collapse of the Soviet Union with the aim of improving relations between Moscow and Washington and Russia benefiting from Israeli capital and technology. But now the situation is completely different from that of the past three decades and is closer to the pre-Gorbachev period. Relations between Washington and Moscow became completely strained after Russia invaded Ukraine. The vast consequences of the war in Ukraine have weakened the political, economic and security structures based in the United States and the world expects a change in the international order and the establishment of a new international system. In this situation, Israel is still considered a strategic ally of the United States and the relationship between Russia and Israel has become more complicated.

Regional Considerations

Although international conditions have changed as a driving force in relations between Moscow and Tel Aviv, there are regionally unresolved issues in the Middle East which, in the event of continued tensions and a fundamental change in relations between Moscow and Tel Aviv, Tel Aviv will make the situation costly, especially for Israel.

When Moscow reconsidered its relations with Tel Aviv in 1991 on international grounds, Israel sought a friendly relationship with the Russians on regional grounds. Close relations with Moscow have kept Russia from appearing among Israel’s regional enemies and rivals. Due to its friendly relations with Moscow over the past three decades, Tel Aviv has managed the costs and benefits of many regional crises.

Today, the change on the international scene is also changing the regional order in the Middle East. It is then that the strategies of the United States in recent years indicate a shift of attention from the Middle East to East Asia. While Washington has attempted to delegate some of its strategic responsibilities to Israel through strategies such as the establishment of the Abraham Pact, there are intractable issues between Washington and key players in the Arab world that would make such actors that Saudi Arabia, the traditional ally of the United States, suspicious of Washington’s policy.

In other words, the heightened tensions between Russia and Israel, the geopolitical competition between Russia and the United States, creates great uncertainty for Tel Aviv about the future.

The improvement of diplomatic relations between Russia and Israel during the Soviet Union era and the removal of obstacles to the immigration of Russian Jews to the occupied territories have strengthened the Israeli regime. The number of Russian-born politicians in Israel has increased proportionally, leading to Russia’s political and economic influence in Israel.

As a result, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, these relations steadily developed and sometimes the title of strategic alliance was used for Moscow-Tel Aviv relations, although there have been ups and downs in these relationships.

Scope and consequences of tensions between Russia and Israel

Considering all the above interpretations of the role of international and regional variables, it can be said that the judicial decision in Russia to close the Jewish Agency office in Moscow has both social and political aspects.

Anti-Semitism in Russia has a long history and social and religious roots. But it should be noted that for the past 30 years, the main activity of the “Jewish Agency in Russia” has been to facilitate the immigration of Zionists to the occupied territories. Just as the immigration work permit was granted to this agency with an international motive, now its closure also occurs mainly with the same motive. US political, economic and military hostility to Russia has made Moscow suspicious of Israel and Tel Aviv-linked forces in the country. While the United States uses a combination of hardware and software strategies to weaken Russia, Israeli-affiliated forces may be part of Washington’s software tools in Russia. Over the past decade, Russia has attempted to block the place of all social influence and civil activity of Western organizations and agencies. In this regard, Moscow is probably trying to warn Israel against any form of cooperation and participation in US anti-Russian plans with the recent decision.

(This article was originally written in Persian and translated into English by Press TV staff. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV.)